Statistics
Jun
27
Small Colorado prison study generally supports gun rights arguments
June 27, 2009 | Tagged CDC Study, Colorado, Concealed Carry, futility of gun control, Kleck, Lott, NAS Study | 1 Comment
The Denver Post article, ”Book goes inside the minds of gun criminals,” by Monte Whaley, in the 06-26-09 issue of the paper, deals with 73 criminals who used firearms in the commission of one or more crimes. The upcoming book, Guns, Violence, and Criminal Behavior: The Offender’s Perspective, apparently offers interesting insights into criminal gun use among some Colorado offenders.
The US Justice Department’s Project Safe Neighborhoods Program supported the project. CU Professor Mark Pogrebin led the team of CU and CSU researchers, who surveyed prisoners in 2003, 2004.
We should keep in mind that 73 individuals constitute an extremely small sample size, totaling about four percent of the subjects of the landmark prison study done by Professors Wright and Rossi. (See my post under the Category: “Research.”)
The Colorado study group may have been an available sample rather than a random sample, but we will have to wait for the book in July to look at their selection process.
Given these potential limitations, we can consider the self-reports of the prisoners to be representative to some degree of the Colorado population of convicted felons who have used firearms in the commission of a crime. (We should keep in mind that it is illegal for a convicted felon to possess a firearm.)
It will be instructive to find out if the book goes into other crimes committed by the research subjects. The book does apparently touch on the role of drugs, especially Meth, in increasing violent criminal behavior. (It is also illegal for drug addicts to possess firearms.)
According to the article, the Colorado findings suggest that “gun-control laws would have had little effect on the study subjects’ criminal behavior.” The impressive CDC Study and the even more massive NAS Study, which indicate that there is no substantial scientific evidence that gun control laws prevent crime, support this conclusion. (See my posts under the Category: “Research.”)
Another interesting finding of the study in question is that some criminals would be deterred by liberal concealed carry laws. Wright and Rossi found that criminals are risk averse and, in effect, do a kind of risk/benefit analysis when selecting victims.
Florida Scientist Gary Kleck found up to 2 million defensive uses of firearms every year in the United States. Economist John Lott postulates that “shall issue” concealed carry laws save lives and reduce crime. (See David Kopel’s review of John Lott’s book, More Guns, Less Crime, here.)
An interesting artifact of the Colorado Study is that “most inmates said that concealed weapons…” or “the perception” of concealed weapons in the hands of potential victims would lead to more violent behavior on the part of the criminals. There are two possible problems with giving credence to this idea.
The first problem is that the criminals in the study group could have been motivated by bravado, attempting to convince the researchers (and themselves) that they were not intimidated by the idea of relatively widespread, spontaneous, armed opposition to their felonious acts. The second, and more insidious possibility, is that the convicts knew that their responses might find their way into public policy debates on concealed weapons permits. What better way for a career criminal to improve “business conditions” than to provide responses to researchers that might actually disarm potential victims?
Most criminals do not attack police officers in order to take their weapons. Few criminals attempt armed robberies at gun stores or gun shows. I personally give more weight to the much larger Wright and Rossi Study and the evidence of crime deterrence suggested by Dr. Kleck and Dr. Lott.
One convict’s remark that he would shoot people he thought were carrying concealed guns should make it abundantly clear that CCW permit holders’ names must be kept private to protect them and society as a whole. Another implication of this individual’s attitude is that we should incarcerate dangerous felons for as long as possible to keep them from committing future criminal acts.
According to the Post article, this small Colorado study seems to agree with much of the research supporting the Second Amendment and the fundamental right of American Citizens to self-defense against crime. Defense against tyranny and genocide appear to be beyond the scope of the study. It will be interesting to check out the book.
Def Mech
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